Analyst Jeffrey Kiang estimates that the Macau gaming industry could generate US$29.2 billion in gross gaming revenues in 2024, representing almost 30 percent growth compared to 2023 levels, as reported by GGRAsia. This estimate would also stand for about 82 percent of the 2019 benchmark figures, when Macau’s gaming market reached its peak before experiencing a decline due to pandemic-driven closures.
Kiang forecasts a modest increase in 2025 as well, expressing that the market re-opened on 8 January 2023 and rapidly grew during the year, but the industry might be considered fully recovered only when it reaches 2019 levels.
In 2019, Macau’s operators generated around US$35.6 billion in gross gaming revenues, and there are expectations that the industry could reach 82 percent of that tally in 2024, or US$29.2 billion, to be followed by an 89 percent stake in 2025. Kiang anticipates an overall mass GGR to increase 31 percent year-on-year to US$23.2 billion in 2024, with the estimated handle of US$29.2 billion representing a 28.4 percent growth from the US$22.75 billion handled in 2023.
Kiang also expects that the 2024 annual growth may be seen in the first half of the year, likely to be featured by increased visits from mainland China, driving the recovery towards pre-pandemic levels.
As for the market leaders, Sands China Ltd, Galaxy Entertainment Group Ltd, and MGM China Holdings Ltd took the largest market share in 2023, with Sands China and Galaxy Entertainment expected to maintain the largest market share in 2024. CLSA estimates that the Macau gaming sector’s EBITDA will reach US$8.5 billion in 2024, representing 92 percent of the 2019 level.
The Macau gaming industry is expected to continue its recovery and growth, with analysts keeping a close eye on the potential to reach pre-pandemic levels in the coming years.